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#美国就业数据不及预期 Latest Reversal: Trump's Fed Pressure Strategy Might Be Backfiring.
The investigation report from the Department of Justice on January 15 initially seemed like Trump's move to force Powell out, but it instead caused a major shift in market sentiment. Polymarket's data is clear— the probability of Powell leaving before the end of May dropped from 74% at the beginning of the year to 45%, and the chance of him leaving by the end of the year also fell from 85% to 62%. Implicitly, his chances of remaining until 2028 have significantly increased.
Even more painful is the competition among Fed chair candidates—Haskett, whom Trump originally favored, has been overtaken by the more hawkish Kevin Waugh. Irony? The opponent Trump wanted to suppress has instead been strengthened.
Policy analysts have long seen through this pattern: the more Trump pressures, the more likely Powell is to stay at the Fed as an ordinary board member. This power struggle has been bleeding from the start. Uncertainty about the Fed's policy direction continues to ferment, and liquidity expectations are swinging— the upcoming year of Washington's tug-of-war is likely to be more intense than expected.
Powell has stubbornly survived another round, and has even caused something more intense. The Federal Reserve's situation is becoming more and more complicated.
By 2028, it will depend on how these two argue. It feels like money will be burned.
Wosh's rise is even more aggressive than Hasset's. Now the easing expectations are completely gone.
Applying pressure actually strengthens the opponent's stance. That logic is just incredible.
Powell's move has actually stabilized things, which is a bit funny.
The market is going to shake again. The Federal Reserve's situation is really complicated.
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Applying pressure only pushes the opponent harder. This script is really well written.
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Wait, can Polymarket data reverse so quickly? The liquidity situation might be a mess for the whole year.
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Laughing to death. Trying to get a more obedient outcome but ending up with something even harsher. Washington's political game this time is truly excellent.
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How do friends who previously bet that Powell would step down in May feel now?
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The Federal Reserve's situation is becoming more and more complicated. Market sentiment is like a roller coaster, fluctuating up and down.
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Kevin Wash overtaking Hasset is an interesting detail. Nobody expected that, right?
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It seems that direct pressure is useless. This matter needs to be considered in the long term.
He locked himself in again, and Polymarket's data is clear—after pressing down and pressing down, Powell actually became more stable? This script doesn't add up.
He wanted a hawkish stance, but instead a fiercer Wosh appeared, which is the so-called "maximum academic value, minimum practical value."
That group in Washington really knows how to play; the more pressure they apply, the more it rebounds. This whole year is probably going to be a deadlock.
The situation is getting more and more complicated. No one expects the Federal Reserve's mess to end easily.
Powell might be laughing all the way to 2028; this script is perfectly written.
Polymarket data shows clearly that the market has already figured out how this game is played.
Basically, it's shooting oneself in the foot. Kevin Waugh is tougher than Hasset, this is getting interesting.
If the Federal Reserve really appoints a hawkish successor, how long will the liquidity expectations be tossed around?
It feels like Washington will be in chaos this year, and the crypto world will have to keep watching the show.
Trump's clever plan was exposed by Powell's report in one go.
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Polymarket's data is so interesting. Powell actually became more stable, I didn't see this logic coming.
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The more pressure applied, the longer he stays in office. It's outrageous. Electing a more hawkish figure makes things even harder.
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The Federal Reserve's mess, Washington probably has a headache for a whole year.
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Honestly, Trump's move was a real miscalculation. Kevin Waugh surpassing Hasset really explains the issue well.
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So who actually won? It seems no one really wins in the end.
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The volatility in liquidity is so annoying. The market must be feeling really uncomfortable.