#Strategy加仓BTC Ethereum rebounds are weak, and bearish pressure continues to mount

$ETH current price is 3286.55 USDT, down a little over 2% in the past 24 hours. The recent market rhythm is quite interesting—price is oscillating around the key support at 3238, with overhead resistance firmly locked at 3367. In simple terms, it's about making a directional choice.

From a technical perspective, the MA5 just broke below the MA10, indicating short-term moving averages are starting to weaken, but the price is still holding above the MA20, so the long-term support framework remains intact. However, this oscillating pattern tells us that the bulls are indeed losing strength.

The MACD is more straightforward—histogram bars are shrinking, and the difference between DIF and DEA is getting smaller, a typical sign of waning bullish momentum. In the Bollinger Bands, the price is squeezed between the middle and lower bands, with a %B value of only 0.66%, indicating the price is leaning toward the lower band. RSI is fluctuating between 49-59, not reaching extreme levels but clearly showing weakness. The most concerning is the KDJ—K line just crossed below the D line, and J is dropping rapidly, signaling a potential bearish move.

The story on capital flow is also worth noting. The funding rate at 0.0056% remains normal, with a seemingly balanced bullish and bearish sentiment on the surface, but in reality, institutions are quietly withdrawing. The 4-hour contract shows a net outflow of 414 million, and over 24 hours, outflows reach 495 million. Spot holdings are also not doing well, with net outflows as well. This indicates that both leveraged traders and spot holders have been reducing their positions recently.

Regarding volume, it’s noteworthy that during price declines, volume actually increases—this is not a good sign. Especially when breaking below 3300, with high volume selling, it suggests large traders are dumping.

What about the future trend? My cautious judgment is to look for a bearish bias. If the price rebounds to the 3330-3350 range, consider gradually shorting or wait for a confirmed breakdown of the 3275 support before chasing shorts. Don’t set stops too close; place them at 3380, allowing about 3.2% of space. This level corresponds to the resonance pressure of the upper Bollinger Band and previous highs.

For targets, first watch the key support at 3238; if broken, then 3192 as a secondary target. Following this rhythm, the profit potential is in the reasonable range of 3-5%.

Finally, a reminder: position sizing must be controlled, as the market can reverse at any time. Pay special attention to the US stock market opening in the evening, as it has always had a significant impact on crypto markets and often signals turning points. This current node is sensitive, and the direction decision is imminent. Don’t be greedy—stay calm.