Behind the Bitcoin Treasury Giant's Funding Expansion: Why is Wall Street Lowering Its Stock Price Target?

【BlockBeats】Recently, there is an interesting trend worth paying attention to. Investment bank TD Cowen yesterday revised its outlook on Bitcoin treasury company Strategy—cutting the one-year target price from $500 to $440, a decline of nearly 12%.

The reason for the price cut is quite straightforward: Strategy has been aggressively raising funds recently to buy Bitcoin, but this approach is diluting investors’ “Bitcoin yield” (simply put, the growth rate of BTC per share).

The data looks quite aggressive. TD Cowen predicts that Strategy will increase its Bitcoin holdings by approximately 155,000 BTC in fiscal year 2026, significantly higher than the previous estimate of 90,000 BTC. The issue is that almost all of this purchase funding relies on equity financing. In the past week (up to January 11), the company issued about 6.8 million common shares and 1.2 million floating-rate preferred shares, raising a total of $1.25 billion. This money was basically all spent on buying 13,627 BTC.

It sounds substantial, but the return on investment growth isn’t as ideal. Because the financing price was close to the book value at the time, this means that unless Bitcoin prices rise significantly, the actual return for shareholders from this operation will be limited. This is the core logic behind TD Cowen’s decision to lower the target price.

Specifically, the Bitcoin yield for fiscal year 2026 has been revised down to 7.1%, far below the previous expectation of 8.8%, and a significant drop from last year’s 22.8%. However, analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects—projecting around $177,000 by the end of 2026 and $226,000 by the end of 2027. If Bitcoin truly reaches these levels, the current financing strategy will finally demonstrate its value.

In essence, this is a game of financing rhythm and market cycle. Accelerating accumulation during market downturns is indeed bold, but the key still depends on subsequent Bitcoin price performance to prove whether it’s worthwhile.