Recently, there has been a lot of heated discussion in the industry, and Tom Lee from Fundstrat has once again made new predictions about the US stock market and the crypto market in 2026. As a veteran who has been in this circle for eight years, I want to be straightforward and say: this wave of predictions is not baseless, but if you want to make quick money from it, you first need to avoid the three most common pitfalls for beginners.

To be honest, Tom Lee's predictions in recent years haven't been particularly well-received. Last year, he predicted Bitcoin would break 200,000 by the end of the year, but it directly failed. However, this time he isn't just shooting from the hip; he is speaking with macro data and market laws, which feels a bit different.

His scenario for 2026 is as follows: a hot market at the beginning of the year, a deep correction in the middle, and another rebound at the end of the year. Sounds like the market is unpredictable? Not really. Behind this is an inevitable logic driven by liquidity, not some mysterious metaphysics.

Let's break down Tom Lee's core view. He says that a crash followed by a rise isn't market "fluctuation," but a normal digestion process after liquidity inflows. Looking back at the massive liquidity injection by the Federal Reserve in 2020, the first beneficiaries were the US stock market, but it wasn't until 202X that this transmission reached crypto assets. Liquidity flows from central banks into the market, from stock markets into risk assets, and this process takes time. Each cycle follows this pattern, just with different rhythms and magnitudes.

But there are also points worth questioning. Relying solely on liquidity to explain market cycles can sometimes overlook the impact of sentiment and policy. Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are far more sensitive to macroeconomic changes than traditional financial assets. A single policy change or regulatory shift can rewrite the entire cycle's rhythm.

To truly profit from this prediction, the key is to understand the evolution of liquidity flow, not blindly chase after rising prices or sell in panic. Stay sober during the initial euphoria, don't get scared out during the mid-year correction, and avoid going all-in during the end-of-year rebound. That’s the correct approach.