2026-01-14 12:31:26

Recently, I discovered an interesting phenomenon: many opinion leaders in the industry follow similar operational routines. For example, when Ethereum was rising some time ago, someone came out and said: I called for everyone to be bullish on ETH a week ago, now it's verified, right? Or they might say: I accurately predicted the 3200 price level ten days ago, see if it has been realized?

Using this logic to look back, isn't it that I predicted last year that Ethereum would surge to 3300, and now it really reached that point? Doesn't that make me a super master? I even now set a post as proof, asserting that Ethereum will definitely test 5000. When it really hits that level someday, I can show screenshots and boast that I predicted the market months in advance.

Honestly, I'm tired of these after-the-fact predictions. As long as the time span is long enough and the price fluctuations are large enough, you can always find a point in time when the prediction was "accurate." But this is just a probability game, not some superhuman forecasting ability. It actually makes people feel a bit unreliable.

ETH-2,58%

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SigmaBrain

· 01-17 12:25

Haha, this is the magical realism of the crypto world. Basically, it's just pretending to be a master based on luck. I've seen this routine too many times. Anyway, there's always a moment when they boast about being right. Those who are truly capable have already quietly made their fortune and don't have time to post screenshots every day.

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BridgeTrustFund

· 01-17 12:19

Haha, really, I've seen this trick many times before—it's the feeling of riding on the coattails of a so-called prophet. That's right, as the timeline extends, you can always dig up a "accurate" prediction from some corner, which is totally just a survivor bias trick. I think rather than listening to predictions, it's better to look at the fundamentals yourself. These hindsight armchair strategist comments are just for listening.

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LongTermDreamer

· 01-14 12:50

Haha, I thought the same three years ago. Now I realize that everyone is actually betting on probabilities, so I just gave up and lay flat.

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Lonely_Validator

· 01-14 12:41

Haha, is that all? I can be a master too. Anyway, if you extend the timeline long enough, anyone can guess correctly. --- Basically, it's just playing probability, a routine of cutting leeks. --- Laughing to death, these people are just gambling. If they win, they brag; if they lose, they pretend to be dead. --- I said last year that ETH would rise, and now it really has. Should I also set a flag? Haha. --- What’s the use of this kind of prediction? It’s better to just look at the candlestick charts. --- That’s incredible. I can make predictions like that too, anyway, it will happen sooner or later. --- A typical survivor bias—deleted all the losing trades. --- Just looking at a market chart and daring to say you predicted it in advance—truly a skill. --- Rather than listening to these, it’s better to do your own research. Don’t be fooled by routines. --- That’s how the circle is. The more they boast, the more absurd it gets. I don’t believe it.

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GweiObserver

· 01-14 12:41

Haha, you hit the nail on the head. This tactic is indeed overused. I've seen too many screenshots and archives waiting for the wind to change. Someone should have exposed these influencers' tricks long ago. Probability games are hard to pass off as accurate predictions, it's laughable. Setting a flag to trap yourself, you'll eventually be exposed. Blockchain can be traced back, and you still want to fool people?

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