Recently, market sentiment has been quite interesting, with everything shouting "shortage"—gold hitting new highs, copper prices soaring, and even GPUs becoming scarce again due to the AI boom. But this wave of shortages is completely different from the "temporary shortages" of the past thirty years.

Over the past three decades, we have become accustomed to three default assumptions simultaneously holding true:

1. Globalization = Decentralization. Supply chains prioritize efficiency, from assembly in Shenzhen to shelf placement in New York, with green lights all the way.

2. Energy = Cheap + Stable. Oil at a few tens of dollars per barrel, electricity costs are insignificant small numbers in financial statements.

3. Trust = Financial Assets. The US dollar and US Treasuries are the ultimate destinations for global funds.

Now, all three have simultaneously failed.

• Supply chains have become geopolitical weapons. An export restriction can shut down chip factories, transforming globalization from an "efficiency network" into a "security game."

• Energy has become a strategic variable. A conflict or a drought directly makes electricity costs unpredictable, and the green energy transition cannot keep up with demand.

• Financial trust has begun to crack. US Treasuries may face "technical default" due to debt ceiling issues, banks could collapse at any time, and funds instinctively chase tangible assets—mines, oil wells, chip factories.

Therefore, the current shortages are essentially "frictions during a period of order reconstruction." When the three pillars of the old system shake simultaneously, all links relying on stable expectations—from factory stockpiling to central bank gold hoarding—fall into anxious "panic buying." This is not a cyclical issue; the underlying logic has changed.