Recently, Bitcoin market movements have been quite interesting. On the surface, it looks like funds are retreating, but in reality, institutional accumulation is quietly taking place. This market contradiction warrants a detailed analysis.

Let's start with the data on the US spot BTC ETF. Last week, there were four consecutive days of net outflows on this line, totaling over $1.3 billion. The main withdrawals came from two leading institutions: BlackRock and Fidelity. They began reducing their positions around the 6th, which coincidentally was also the peak of that week's rebound, showing very precise timing.

Why reduce positions at this time? The reason isn't complicated. The scheduled announcement of Trump's tariff decision, originally set for last week, was delayed until the 14th. This policy uncertainty made institutions cautious. Plus, with the potential volatility from the upcoming non-farm payroll data, they decided to lower their holdings and observe for a while. This isn't panic selling but rather a rational risk adjustment. For large funds, being conservative is often the wiser choice.

Looking at the second set of data, a major exchange's BTC is showing a negative premium, a phenomenon that has persisted for several days. Essentially, the BTC price in overseas markets is lower than in Asian markets, indicating that recent market support mainly comes from Asian funds. The big players in the US market haven't shown much activity yet and seem to be in a wait-and-see mode.

What does this situation imply? In the short term, market dominance is in the hands of Asian funds. However, in the long run, once US big players actively participate, the market could experience new changes. The key now is to closely monitor policy signals and the pace of overseas capital inflows. The market is brewing new opportunities, but it will take time to see how it unfolds.