2026-01-13 23:10:18

#密码资产动态追踪 The correlation between Bitcoin and gold has dropped to -0.18. What does this turning point mean? Historically, whenever the two shift from high correlation to divergence, $BTC usually begins at least a 50% rally. The major bull markets in 2017 and 2021 both started from such divergence.

Gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, has a relatively fixed role. But Bitcoin has already broken through the label of "digital gold"—policy environment is improving, and the outlook for US crypto regulation is becoming more relaxed; institutional participation is unprecedented, with even Saudi sovereign funds building positions; capital flows are becoming increasingly clear. These are not guesses but real market signals. From a technical perspective, the decentralized mechanism of blockchain and cryptographic barriers provide a competitive edge that traditional metal assets simply cannot match.

Concerns about risk are also worth dissecting. The latest data shows that the 30-day volatility of $BTC has fallen below gold, reflecting increased market maturity. More importantly, 76% of circulating supply is now locked by long-term holders, making the token structure more stable than ever. From another angle, when correlation is high, many choose to wait and see; now, clear divergence signals have already appeared—what are we waiting for?

While each market cycle is not exactly the same, cyclical patterns are often surprisingly similar. This upward window triggered by the shift from positive to negative correlation, if missed, might take years to encounter again. The acceleration of the train is already perceptible.

BTC-0,97%

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GateUser-e51e87c7

· 01-15 14:29

Wait, -0.18 still being hyped? They dare to claim a 50% increase based on this data... How many times have we heard this rhetoric around this time last year, really unbelievable. To be honest, the 76% chip lock-up is somewhat interesting, but are institutions really building or is it just media-generated FOMO. Can the historical patterns and this cycle be the same? The environment has changed.

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TopBuyerBottomSeller

· 01-15 03:55

Talking about historical patterns again? 2017 and 2021 both started here, so what about 2022? — Honestly, 76% lock-up data looks so familiar... — Saudi Arabia building positions, relaxed regulation, volatility lower than gold... feels like I've heard this spiel every cycle — When correlation turns negative, should we rush in? I always feel like it's the easiest time to catch the bag — Window, window, why does it feel like every day they say the window is closing — I've heard the phrase "unprecedented institutional deployment" last year, the year before that... are we still talking about it now? — Train acceleration? I don’t see it, actually it feels more like traffic congestion — 50% increase? How about we bet a little, I say it won’t go up — Long-term holders locking in steadily, sounds like what the chip holders want to hear — The "trend toward" prospects of relaxed regulation... this phrase needs attention, it’s not confirmed yet

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JustAnotherWallet

· 01-13 23:36

Is the 76% lock-up data real or fake? Why does it seem so coincidental every time? Does a negative correlation necessarily mean a rise? They said the same thing during the 2017 cycle, but it still had to adjust. The Saudi fund building positions sounds impressive, but what’s the actual scale? Is it that kind of "institutional entry" story again? Volatility lower than gold is interesting, but what does that really mean... risk is still risk. Miss this train and wait for years? I've heard this kind of statement too many times, every cycle they say the same.

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BrokenRugs

· 01-13 23:33

This data sounds good, but can -0.18 really reliably guarantee a 50% increase? Can 2017 and 2021 be directly applied to 2024 now... History repeats itself but is never exactly the same. Saudi Arabia building positions indeed attracts attention, but when will the big money actually enter the market? 76% lock-up sounds stable, but the question is when will these retail investors start to experience selling pressure?

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TokenVelocity

· 01-13 23:28

Wait, starting to tell stories at -0.18? We've heard this before in 2017/2021, but what happened? It still retraced as usual. With news about institutional accumulation and Saudi funds being hyped every day, I just want to ask, has real money actually come in or not?

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