2026-01-13 22:24:48

According to the latest data from CME Federal Funds Futures, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's recent policy direction are showing a clear divergence. The probability of a rate cut this month is almost negligible—only 2.8%—while the chance of maintaining the current interest rate level is as high as 97.2%, reflecting the market's cautious attitude towards the current economic situation.

However, when looking further into the first quarter, the situation begins to change. The probability of a total 25 basis point rate cut by March is 26.8%, while the probability of holding rates steady is 72.5%. In other words, although a rate cut is not highly likely, it is starting to surface. Notably, the probability of a total 50 basis point cut is extremely low, at only 0.7%, indicating that the market is not betting on an aggressive easing cycle.

This set of data reflects the market's real-time assessment of economic indicators such as inflation and employment. For investors focused on market liquidity and risk asset performance, these policy expectation changes directly influence capital allocation decisions.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

9 Likes

Reward
9
7
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

FUDwatcher

· 01-16 15:58

短期死守，还是得等3月再说啊这数据看着就是联储还没想好呢 2.8%这概率...还不如我抄底的概率高等等，97.2%维持不变？感觉咱们还得熬冬天啊 50个基点直接0.7%？行吧，激进宽松是做梦了通胀没降下来之前谁敢赌降息，真心不信 3月那26.8%的机会...到底靠不靠谱呢？市场这态度，感觉还在观望中啊

Reply0

AirdropHunterXiao

· 01-13 22:54

97.2% probability of no movement, this is the current situation. --- A 26.8% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut? Instead of waiting for that, it's better to look for airdrop opportunities. --- What is the market betting on, inflation or employment data? --- Only a 0.7% chance of a 50 basis point cut, really not worth expecting. --- In terms of capital allocation, everyone is waiting for the turning point of the trend. --- Now is the time to endure and wait for March data to speak. --- This probability distribution looks very "Zen," just stay steady. --- Liquidity is so tight, no wonder risk assets are struggling. --- With such a low chance of rate cuts, what’s next? --- 2.8% almost zero, the Federal Reserve is really ruthless this year.

View OriginalReply0

MoonRocketman

· 01-13 22:54

97.2% probability means no movement; this is the real launch window waiting period. --- 25 basis points surface? Still feel like we need to keep an eye on RSI; the upper band of the Bollinger Bands hasn't been broken yet. --- 0.7% chance of aggressive easing; the market simply doesn't dare to bet on this escape velocity, very prudent. --- At the end of March, there's only a 26.8% chance; now is just the refueling stage, don't rush to ignite. --- Inflation and employment data are the real gravitational resistance levels; without these calming down, rate cuts are pointless.

View OriginalReply0

UnluckyLemur

· 01-13 22:51

97.2% probability to hold, Rudy blowing hot air is useless --- 25 basis points rate cut? Let's talk about it in March, anyway, no movement now --- 0.7% aggressive easing, hilarious, the Federal Reserve never intended to loosen --- The market is waiting for data, but I think inflation hasn't fully come down yet --- Ah, this is again a game of guessing the Federal Reserve's psychology, exhausting --- Capital allocation is tough, these kinds of expectations swings are the most annoying --- If you ask me, 97% is 97%, don't overthink about March --- Once employment data has issues, these probabilities will all flip, have you calculated?

View OriginalReply0

MEVHunter_9000

· 01-13 22:36

Uh, it looks like the Federal Reserve still has to hold steady according to this data. --- 97.2% probability of remaining unchanged, feels like we have to wait a bit longer. --- Only 26.8% chance of a 25bp rate cut? Still betting on the economy loosening later. --- So now everyone is doing their own thing; no one really knows when they will actually move. --- Only 0.7% for aggressive easing, haha, the Fed is really stingy. --- Now the market is truly diverging; some are already calculating the March scenario. --- It seems we have to wait until the end of Q1 for some uncertainty; for now, let's not think about it. --- Why do we still need to wait for inflation and employment data to make decisions? This repeated expectation is so annoying.

View OriginalReply0

StakeHouseDirector

· 01-13 22:32

This data looks stable, Powell still wants to hold back Rate cuts are still far off, but maybe there's a chance in March? Although the probability is just about the same 50 basis points? Dreaming. The Federal Reserve has no intention of easing at all

View OriginalReply0

FalseProfitProphet

· 01-13 22:30

97.2% unchanged... This data indicates that the Federal Reserve is really holding back a big move. Cutting interest rates is still far off, let's just be honest and hold onto cash. 26.8% probability... sounds like rolling dice, will there be a rate cut in March or not? Inflation and employment keep getting delayed, the interest rate wall can't be broken down in the short term. The market is betting, we're just accompanying, this feeling is terrible. Loose cycle? Dream on, it was directly suppressed to 0.7%. Waiting half a year is not better than withdrawing now, stop messing around.

View OriginalReply0