#美国消费者物价指数发布在即 What will the Nasdaq do after the US CPI is released tonight? The key still depends on this transmission chain: Inflation Data → Federal Reserve's plans → Tech Stock Valuations.

**Currently, the market is watching these numbers:**
Overall CPI Year-over-Year Expectation 2.7%, Core CPI Year-over-Year also 2.7%. Last month (November), the core CPI was 2.6%, which was praised as "shockingly good."

**Three scenarios, three market trends:**

**Scenario 1: Data unexpectedly declines** (Core CPI ≤ 2.6%)
Tech stocks are saved. The market will wildly bet on the Fed accelerating rate cuts, and a low-interest-rate environment is positive for growth stocks sensitive to valuations. The Nasdaq may surge.

**Scenario 2: Data meets expectations** (Core CPI ≈ 2.7%)
Neither good nor bad, but don’t celebrate too early. Confirming that inflation hasn't rebounded and policy remains stable, but in the short term, volatility may increase as "good news is already priced in." The real focus will be on the upcoming bank earnings—figures from giants like JPMorgan can reveal the true state of the economy.

**Scenario 3: Data exceeds expectations** (Core CPI ≥ 2.8%)
This is problematic. The market will fear sticky inflation, worry that the Fed will maintain high interest rates, and growth stocks will be hammered. The Nasdaq faces downward pressure.

**A technical risk to watch out for:** Today is "Quadruple Witching," when the largest volume of options contracts expire collectively. This alone amplifies volatility, and quant trading algorithms may cause sharp shocks at critical moments. Even if CPI data is favorable, don’t be surprised if the market behaves strangely with erratic swings.