Yesterday, the XMR movement was quite interesting. It rose 15.09% in 24 hours, appearing very fierce, but this is precisely the signal for me to start being cautious—overbought signs are becoming more and more obvious.

The shorts were liquidated for $2.64M, which is indeed quite crazy. However, what's interesting is that the funding rate is actually negative, at -0.0102%, indicating that shorts are paying longs. This contradictory phenomenon is quite common: short-term violent price movements often mask the true market sentiment—most people are still bearish.

From a structural perspective, I am paying attention to whether the rebound can break through the previous high resistance at 665-670. If it can't break through, I prefer to wait for a pullback before considering shorting. Wyckoff analysis provides some insight here: the current movement resembles the late stage of Markup; to truly transition into a downtrend, we need to see a clear Upthrust signal—that is, a false breakout followed by a rapid plunge.

Real-time data mirror:
- Long and short liquidations mainly concentrated at 3.33M, with shorts dominating
- Total open interest increased by 30.17%, showing some growth
- Long/short ratio is 0.55, leaning towards the short side

From an operational perspective: shorting is the preferred choice. If there's a rebound, I will try to enter around 670-675. If it breaks below 650, I might consider adding to the position. But if the price can effectively stay above 680 and hold during a retest, then this short-term bearish idea will be invalidated.

The most important thing to watch is the speed of the rebound. Rebounds in this kind of market are often fierce and can lead to repeated washouts if chased during the acceleration phase.