A large asset management firm recently proposed an interesting idea: this cycle of Bitcoin's price movement might be different from all previous ones.

The traditional understanding is quite clear — after each Bitcoin halving, the top is usually reached in about 17 to 18 months. This was the case in 2017 and again in 2021. Following this logic, starting from the April 2024 halving, the same pattern should apply.

However, this institution believes the game has changed.

The key lies in the nature of demand. Currently, Bitcoin's purchasing power is no longer primarily driven by retail investors chasing highs, but by continuous, mechanical inflows from institutional ETFs. U.S. policy attitudes have also shifted; they are no longer explicitly opposed to crypto assets. More importantly, Bitcoin itself is beginning to be viewed as an independent macro asset, rather than just a risk asset linked to stocks.

These conditions did not exist in previous cycles.

They compare the current situation to the early 2000s commodity supercycle — the high-range periods have been extended, crashes are less frequent, and demand remains stable.

If this assessment holds, then many people waiting for the "top 6-18 months after halving" might be chasing a false signal. Most traders are still preparing according to the old pattern, but that pattern may no longer be applicable.