Gold prices surged straight to $4,600 this morning, rendering the previous resistance at $4,550 meaningless. This rally has made both sides of the market uneasy—some fear missing out, others worry this is the final frenzy of the bulls.

Last Friday’s US non-farm payroll data was a mixed bag. The employment rate improved, but the unemployment rate actually declined. What does this data truly reflect? To be honest, looking at the numbers alone is no longer very meaningful; the key question is: who does this data serve? The Federal Reserve is eager to advance the rate-cut cycle, which requires the employment situation not to be too bad; otherwise, opposition voices will be strong, and easing monetary policy will be difficult to implement. From a policy perspective, low inflation, a resilient labor market, and few dissenting voices—these are the justifications for pausing the economic slowdown.

Geopolitical tensions are indeed frequent hot spots, but they are more like small sparks at a gas station. What truly drives gold is the "fuel truck" of monetary policy. A single match can ignite it. Under the consensus and collective sentiment of the market, the abundant US dollar flows into precious metals at any cost. Over the past month, the CME has repeatedly raised margin requirements, intending to cool overheated bullish sentiment. But instead, it became the last excuse for the bulls’ frenzy—adjusting weights, increasing margins—these actions actually fueled stronger upward momentum.

The problem is, no one can stop the tide of collective inflows. Anyone who dares to say gold is risky, or that entering at current high levels is dangerous, will be seen by retail investors as the "greatest risk"—blocking others from making money is simply "evil." But I want to say: when you lose your rationality in pursuit of quick gains, don’t forget that tides will eventually recede. No bull market can make everyone successful; having a systematic hedging plan for potential corrections is the real smart move.

Today, gold gaps higher again, continuing the strong trend since last Monday…