Bitcoin oscillates between bearish pressures and technical supports: what scenario to expect?

In recent sessions, Bitcoin has shown impressive volatility following the release of November US labor market data. The asset initially surged over 3%, reaching the $88K from previous $85K, then completely gave back gains and dropped to $86.6K at the time of writing. This pattern of opposing movements reflects the ongoing uncertainty characterizing crypto markets in the face of complex macroeconomic signals.

The Employment Report: Strong but with cracks in the overall picture

The data surprised on the upside with 64K new jobs compared to the 51K expected, suggesting greater resilience in the US labor market than estimated. However, behind this seemingly positive figure lies a more nuanced reality. While aggregate numbers remain solid, qualitative analysis reveals a concerning trend: high-quality full-time roles are contracting, while part-time contracts are increasing, an indicator that often precedes economic deterioration.

This dynamic has direct implications for monetary policy. The Federal Reserve uses employment data as a central pillar for interest rate decisions. The “strong” report prompted markets to scale back expectations of further cuts in January 2026, raising the probability of holding current levels (3.50-3.75%) from 3% to 78%. Consequently, risk-on sentiment has weakened significantly, dragging Bitcoin lower.

David Hernandez, Crypto Investment Specialist at asset manager 21Shares, commented on the moment highlighting the imminent risk: “There could be immediate selling pressure as traders reassess the risk landscape, forcing BTC to defend a key support zone.” This observation perfectly summarizes the conflict Bitcoin is facing between conflicting fundamentals.

A week of high tension: catalysts ahead

The macroeconomic calendar offers no respite. US inflation data will be released on December 18, followed by the crucial Bank of Japan rate decision on December 19. This concentration of key events exposes BTC to a period of extreme volatility.

Higher-than-expected inflation data would reinforce the case for a cautious Fed on cuts, further weighing on Bitcoin. Conversely, decelerating inflation could reopen the scenario of additional rate reductions, giving new momentum to the price. However, the verdict from the BoJ dominates attention. The market anticipates a 25 basis point increase, a scenario that has historically triggered further liquidations of BTC positions, fueling widespread fears.

Meanwhile, the behavior of long-term holders (LTH)—those holding BTC for over five months—raises red flags. This segment of investors has been continuously selling since July, reaching supply levels not seen in five years. According to warnings from industry analysts, such long-term holder accumulation patterns historically coincide with market tops.

Flows from US spot BTC ETFs confirm this cautious attitude, with $634 million in outflows recorded early in the week, a clear risk-off signal ahead of upcoming macro catalysts.

Where to watch: critical supports and resistances

In the short term, BTC’s technical action will be dictated by a well-defined liquidity map. According to the one-month liquidation heatmap, the first “appetizing” support level is at $83K, where a significant liquidity concentration could act as a magnet for the price during a weakness phase. On the upside, resistance zones are positioned at $90K around $95K, levels that could become tactical targets if upcoming volatility resolves with downward inflation surprises.

On broader timeframes, however, Grayscale maintains a constructive outlook, expecting Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs (ATH) in the medium to long term, suggesting that current oscillations may represent consolidations rather than structural trend reversals.

Conclusions: uncertain scenario but with known geometry

Bitcoin remains trapped between downward pressures induced by expectations of high rates and well-defined technical supports. Next week will be decisive in determining whether current oscillations will be a tactical slowdown or the start of a deeper correction. Monitoring inflation data and the BoJ decision remains essential, as does observing liquidity behavior around the $83K and levels above $90K, crucial indicators of short-term market structure.