2026-01-12 08:23:40

Recent analysis by institutions suggests that US real consumer spending may grow by 2.4% this quarter, which sounds promising. But a closer look at the data reveals several issues.

The truth behind the consumption growth is quite sobering. Disposable income for high-income groups has only increased by 3.0%, and they are the main drivers of consumption. Once the stock market weakens and the wealth effect reverses, high-end spending immediately slows down. In simple terms, current consumption growth is built on stock account gains, which carries significant risk.

Even more concerning is the inflation data. Calling inflation "moderate"? Look at the recent core PCE data—monthly rates from November to December have rebounded to 0.15%-0.30%. Annualized, this means inflation is accelerating again. Institutions forecast that the December core PCE year-over-year will reach 2.7%, and it won't return to 2.1% until December next year. Will the annual target of 2% be achieved? It's uncertain.

What's more interesting is that various forecasting agencies have already begun to raise inflation expectations for 2025-2026. This indicates a shift in market views on inflation. Strong consumption, rebounding inflation, and support from high-income groups—how long can this combination last?

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NFTFreezer

· 01-14 19:51

Basically, it's just paper prosperity. When the stock market crashes, everything is over. High income is the main consumer, everyone knows that, but the problem is they also have to look at stock market performance. Inflation isn't over yet, it will rise again next year. Does the central bank really not understand this? Consumer data looks good, but it's built on asset bubbles, and eventually, the bills will have to be paid. Right now, everyone is talking about mild inflation, but they selectively forget about the PCE rebound? The stock market can't be protected for long; once support breaks, consumption will immediately falter. How long can this combination last? I can't bet on it, but it definitely won't last three months.

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PanicSeller

· 01-13 00:14

Stock accounts supporting consumption— isn't that just a house of cards? A 20% drop and you'll be forced to repay your debts.

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OnchainHolmes

· 01-12 08:53

Wow, stock accounts supporting consumption? That's outrageous, just the logic of cutting leeks.

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MEVSandwichMaker

· 01-12 08:53

Basically, it's just blowing bubbles in the stock account, and they burst at a poke. When the stock market drops, high-end consumption collapses instantly. I'm tired of this logic. Inflation hasn't really decreased; it's just institutions fooling people. I feel like 2025 will be very tough. Who are these data figures fooling? High income only increased by 3%... Wait, is the core PCE rebounding again? Then the rate cut should stop. Strong consumer spending? That's a game for the rich.

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Degentleman

· 01-12 08:51

Basically, it's like hot potato; it will eventually break sooner or later.

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APY追逐者

· 01-12 08:49

Stock accounts support consumption, isn't that just drinking poison to quench thirst? --- Inflation data keeps deceiving, 0.15 to 0.30 can't hide the truth at all. --- The 3% growth of high-income groups still relies on stock trading to fill the gaps, how do the lower classes survive? --- 2.7% PCE? Returning to 2.1% next year? I think it's very uncertain. --- Strong consumption? Not really, it's just because the wealthy have higher account balances. --- An upward revision of inflation expectations by institutions is the real signal; don't be fooled by 2.4%. --- The moment the wealth effect reverses, all these data are useless. --- What does the rebound in core PCE indicate? It just proves that "moderate" inflation is a scam. --- Supporting for so long depends entirely on the stock market; who dares to take this risk? --- Once the stock market adjusts, high-end consumption collapses, and the entire logic falls apart.

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