This week (13-18th), multiple projects will undergo large-scale token unlocks, including CHEEL, STRK, ARB, ONDO, TRUMP, and others. Among them, the two with particularly large scales are especially noteworthy: TRUMP unlocking 50 million tokens (about 12% of circulating supply) and ONDO unlocking 17.1 billion tokens (17% of circulating supply).

Many people see the unlock news and immediately assume a bearish decline, but the actual situation is more complex. For example, projects like ARB and SEI have unlock ratios of only around 1%, and their direct impact on the market is actually quite limited, mainly affecting trading sentiment.

The real risk points are massive unlocks like TRUMP and ONDO. Once the institutions receiving the tokens start to cash out, the selling pressure will be very concentrated, and at that time, the market will need sufficient absorption capacity.

In fact, the market usually anticipates and digests these expectations in advance. The key is whether you can judge who is selling, how much they are selling, and whether the current market absorption capacity is enough. These are not just determined by data; they also involve comprehensive analysis of funding conditions, sentiment cycles, and other factors. Unlocking itself is an established fact, but the market’s reaction depends entirely on participants’ expectations management and risk assessment.