Currently in the crypto circle, many people are still debating minute-by-minute Bitcoin fluctuations, while overlooking a capital surge brewing in the United States—the potential $150 billion tariff refund wave.

The background is as follows: The US government plans to bypass Congress in 2025 and implement tariff measures directly, and the Supreme Court is about to rule on the legality of this move. If deemed illegal, the US government will be required to refund nearly $150 billion in tariffs to businesses and consumers. What makes this money special is that it functions as a form of "fiscal stimulus not reliant on central bank money printing"—funds go directly into business and personal accounts, with purchasing power immediately released, producing a more direct effect than simply cutting interest rates. It is reported that over 1,000 companies are preparing lawsuits in response.

What does this mean for the crypto market? Looking at the latest market data makes it clear. By early 2026, Bitcoin has surpassed $94,000, with daily net inflows into spot ETFs exceeding $400 million, indicating growing demand from institutions and retail investors. Meanwhile, the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency has officially confirmed that banks are permitted to offer custody and trading services for crypto assets. This policy signal is crucial—it opens the channel for traditional finance to allocate to crypto assets.

The reality is, after companies receive this refund, aside from using it for expansion, the remaining funds are likely to flow into alternative investments. The past two years have seen crypto assets attract institutional attention, with the proportion of cryptocurrencies in risk asset allocations gradually increasing. As this $150 billion liquidity begins to be released, the crypto market, as a relatively emerging asset class, will find it hard not to be included in key allocation considerations.