Expectations of Major Institutions for Rate Cuts in 2026

1. Mainstream Camp (Two rate cuts, 50 basis points)
• Goldman Sachs: Double cuts in March and June, ending the year with rates at 3.00%-3.25%; optimistic about economic growth of 2%-2.5%.
• Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Nomura, Barclays: Same target range, with slight timing differences (e.g., Nomura in June and September, Morgan Stanley in January and April (from a cautious perspective, January is unlikely to see rate cuts, so Morgan Stanley and Citigroup are less confident).
2. Aggressive and Conservative Ends
• Citigroup (Aggressive): Three rate cuts totaling 75 basis points, ending the year with rates at 2.75%-3.00% (January, March, September).
• JPMorgan Chase, Deutsche Bank (Conservative): Only one 25 basis point rate cut, with a steadier pace.
3. Extreme and Official External Perspectives
• HSBC, Standard Chartered: Some forecasts suggest no rate cuts throughout the year; Macquarie leans more towards an extreme rate hike expectation.
• Congressional Budget Office (CBO): Slight rate cuts, with end-of-year rates around 3.4%, between mainstream and conservative views.
Core Divergences and Impacts (Public Perspective Commentary)
• Key variables: Inflation slowdown slope, labor market resilience, Federal Reserve Chair candidate, will determine the pace and frequency of rate cuts.
• Asset impacts: Mild double rate cuts (mainstream) favor risk assets; conservative minimal or no cuts favor the US dollar and gold; aggressive three cuts are more beneficial for cryptocurrencies and growth stocks (no rate cuts in January, so at most two in 2026).