#ETF资金流向 The 364-day cycle theory of Bitcoin is back in the spotlight, with a bottom expectation in October next year and a price of $37,500. This kind of macro cycle analysis sounds appealing, but in actual trading, it’s important to stay calm.

Historical patterns do have reference value, but the market never repeats exactly. I’ve followed many experts based on cycle theories, and the biggest lesson is: cycles are just probabilistic frameworks, not definitive signals. More importantly, observe capital flows and market structure—for example, the scale of ETF net outflows and the speed of institutional de-risking—these can help determine if the bottom has truly arrived.

If you go all-in now and wait until October, it’s risky. A more practical approach is to deploy capital in batches, adjusting positions based on ETF fund movements. If the bottom is really there, start with small trials now, and add more after flow data confirms, so you avoid missing out or getting caught off guard.

Cycles are friends, but don’t let them become reasons for gambling.