There are two major events tonight that could impact the cryptocurrency market, which require close attention.

First is the Non-Farm Payrolls data to be released at 21:30 Beijing time. The market expects an increase of about 55,000 jobs. This number is critical—if it exceeds 120,000, the rate hike expectations will sharply increase, potentially causing Bitcoin to face a sharp decline; if it falls between 50,000 and 100,000, a moderate rise is more likely; if it is less than 50,000, expectations for rate cuts will surge, which is a clear bullish signal for cryptocurrencies. The previous unemployment rate was 4.6%, with an expectation of 4.5%. Any deviation will amplify market volatility.

Second is the Supreme Court’s final ruling on Trump’s tariff policies. Based on market sentiment, there is a high probability (over 70%) that the court will rule these tariffs unconstitutional, which could lead to a refund impact of hundreds of billions of dollars on the US fiscal system. The US dollar will come under pressure, and Bitcoin, as a risk hedge asset, may become a safe haven. Even if the court upholds the tariffs, ongoing trade uncertainties will push inflation expectations higher, increasing market demand for hedging through crypto assets.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently around $91,000. On the bullish side, breaking through $92,000 could expand upward momentum, targeting $93,900, with the ultimate goal of reaching the $100,000 mark. The key support for the bears is at $89,000; if broken, it will test $86,800 and may trigger chain reactions of liquidations. Expected volatility tonight is 5-8%, which will be a test for high-leverage accounts.

Risk management advice: leverage must be reduced to below 5x, as the liquidation risk across the market is very high. You can place staggered orders at support levels of $88,500 and resistance levels of $93,000, but liquidity can dry up instantly when data is released, so avoid chasing rallies or panic selling. Also, keep an eye on the real-time performance of US stocks (especially Nasdaq), the US dollar index, and gold, as these will influence the overall market rhythm.

The core rule of the crypto market is—survive first, then wait for the next opportunity.