Futures
Access hundreds of perpetual contracts
TradFi
Gold
One platform for global traditional assets
Options
Hot
Trade European-style vanilla options
Unified Account
Maximize your capital efficiency
Demo Trading
Futures Kickoff
Get prepared for your futures trading
Futures Events
Join events to earn rewards
Demo Trading
Use virtual funds to practice risk-free trading
Launch
CandyDrop
Collect candies to earn airdrops
Launchpool
Quick staking, earn potential new tokens
HODLer Airdrop
Hold GT and get massive airdrops for free
Launchpad
Be early to the next big token project
Alpha Points
Trade on-chain assets and earn airdrops
Futures Points
Earn futures points and claim airdrop rewards
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Raoul Pal's 5-Year Cycle Theory Pushes Peak to 2026
Source: CryptoNewsNet Original Title: Bitcoin Price Prediction: Raoul Pal’s 5-Year Cycle Theory Pushes Peak to 2026 Original Link: Bitcoin fell 40% while global liquidity went up. Gold rallied. M2 money supply climbed. BTC broke down below $100,000. That wasn’t supposed to happen.
Macro analyst Raoul Pal says the bull market isn’t dead, just delayed. According to a breakdown by analyst Nathan Sloan, Pal argues crypto’s 4-year cycle has stretched into a 5-year cycle, pushing the real peak to 2026.
Because of this, there won’t be a crypto winter this year, but a delayed mega-boom instead.
Why Bitcoin Stopped Following Liquidity
Bitcoin and global M2 have moved together for years. When liquidity rises, BTC rises. The 2020-2021 bull run followed this pattern closely.
This cycle broke that trend. M2 went up. Bitcoin went sideways, then down. Investors expecting $200,000 watched BTC slide instead.
The Fed Pushed the Timeline Back
US government debt keeps growing. Interest payments are getting harder to manage. The government needs lower rates to refinance.
But Jerome Powell kept rates high to fight inflation. That delayed the cheap money that usually drives crypto higher.
Bitcoin follows the business cycle. When that cycle stretches, so does crypto’s timeline. The 2025 peak many expected may now arrive in 2026.
Short-Term Crash, Long-Term Boom
Short-term pain and long-term gains can happen together.
In 2019, the Fed ended tightening and started easing. Bitcoin still dropped for six more months before turning around. Liquidity takes time to hit markets.
If that pattern repeats, another 50% drop is possible before the bottom. But once liquidity flows through, the rally could be sharp.
Altcoin season is still expected. It just follows Bitcoin’s lead, so it waits too.
What Comes Next
The next few months matter. A new Fed chair is expected to cut rates. That shift could restart the liquidity engine.
Sloan says Pal’s thesis should get confirmed or rejected by the end of Q1. If the theory holds, the crypto rally was never canceled, just pushed back.