How to interpret non-farm payroll data for bullish or bearish signals? Tonight at 9:30, three indicators to watch closely: new employment numbers, unemployment rate, and year-over-year average hourly earnings. Last month, the unemployment rate held at 4.6%, and this time, the forecast is about 55,000 new jobs, with the unemployment rate fluctuating between 4.6% and 4.7%.

Scenario 1: The unemployment rate breaks above 4.7% or new employment is far below expectations—market sentiment clearly cools down, and the probability of a rate cut in January jumps significantly. This is good news for assets like $BTC and $ETH.

Scenario 2: The opposite happens—new employment reaches or exceeds expectations, and the unemployment rate continues to decline. This means the likelihood of a rate cut in January is low, and the chances of maintaining the current stance increase, putting pressure on the crypto market.

Three data points, one logical chain. Beginners can remember: worse employment data → stronger rate cut expectations → positive for #密码资产动态追踪 ETH; better data → delayed rate cut → short-term pressure.