The first non-farm payrolls data of 2026 will be released tonight at 21:30. Market expectations are for an increase of 60,000 jobs, a decline from the previous 64,000. At the same time, the unemployment rate data will also be released. These two figures may seem simple, but they are enough to shake the global capital markets, and the cryptocurrency circle will naturally not be left out.

Ultimately, non-farm data reflects the health of the US employment market. What does strong employment data mean? It indicates a continued economic improvement, but this also suggests that the Federal Reserve may maintain high interest rates, as inflationary pressures persist. As a result, the US dollar tends to strengthen, while risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum may face pressure. Conversely, if employment data is disappointing and economic growth slows, expectations for rate cuts will rise, putting pressure on the dollar and shifting funds toward safe-haven and growth assets like Bitcoin.

The current expectations are not high. If the actual data falls below 60,000 or shows clear weakness, the market is likely to speculate on a "rate cut cycle coming," which is positive for cryptocurrencies. But if the data exceeds 64,000, indicating a resilient employment market, the probability of a short-term market correction increases. However, from a medium- to long-term perspective, economic cycles will eventually turn, and the era of rate cuts will arrive. The current decline often presents future opportunities.

From an intuitive perspective, non-farm data directly influences the price of cryptocurrencies by affecting the US dollar trend and market risk appetite. Weak data is bullish, strong data is bearish—this is basic logic. But don’t forget, large funds often create volatility around major data releases, using news to manipulate the market. Stop-loss hunts, panic selling, and creating fear are routine operations; even if you get the direction right, you can still get caught.

For participants, the strategy isn’t complicated: light positions and cautious observation are the best. Never heavily bet on one side before the data is released. After the data comes out, watch the market’s reaction within half an hour, confirm the trend before following, and go with the flow—this often beats prediction. More importantly, keep a calm mindset; sudden surges or drops can easily disrupt your rhythm. Sometimes, doing nothing is the best move.

Once the data is released, the market’s reaction is usually the most genuine. Whether it’s a real rally or just a false alarm, the movement of funds will tell all. The key is to learn to stay rational during market panic and remain calm during madness—this is the core competitiveness for long-term survival.