To talk about how the crypto market is influenced by macroeconomic data, we need to start with non-farm payrolls.

When the non-farm payroll data is released, it immediately determines the Federal Reserve's stance. If new jobs exceed 70,000, the unemployment rate drops below 4.4%, and wage growth is impressive—this indicates rising inflation concerns, prompting the Fed to adopt a hawkish stance, either by raising interest rates or delaying rate cuts—of course, the crypto market can't handle this. Conversely, if new jobs are fewer than 50,000, and the unemployment rate rises to 4.6%, signaling a recession, the Fed shifts to a dovish stance and loosens policy—at this time, cryptocurrencies often get a breather.

Policy stance determines the direction of the US dollar and capital flows. During hawkish cycles, the dollar strengthens, risk-free yields rise, and hot money withdraws from high-risk crypto markets; in a dovish environment, the dollar weakens, and funds tend to flow into crypto assets seeking higher returns. This logic has been repeatedly validated by historical data.

The most volatile period for market sentiment is within half an hour to an hour after the data release. During this window, leveraged positions are most prone to chain liquidations, with BTC and the US dollar index usually moving inversely, while less liquid assets like ETH often experience greater volatility than BTC.

Based on current expectations, there are three different scenarios. If the data is particularly strong, BTC and ETH may face short-term pressure, and a strengthening dollar index could lead to net outflows from spot ETF funds; if the data is weak, price rebounds could open up, and large whales might buy the dip; the most common scenario is that the data meets expectations, and the market remains cautious in a sideways trend, waiting for the upcoming CPI data to provide new signals.