Will Bitcoin continue to fall? When is the bottom? This is a question many people have been asking recently.

Based on previous bear market bottom analysis, there are two possible scenarios for Bitcoin's low point.

**The first, relatively optimistic scenario**: Bitcoin stops falling around 52,500, with a rebound target range of 54,500±2000.

**The second, more pessimistic scenario**: Bitcoin falls below 40,000, with a target range of 38,300±1400.

Honestly, I think the probability of the pessimistic scenario happening is higher, but the optimistic scenario cannot be completely ruled out either. So when planning to catch the bottom, both possibilities should be considered.

**Don’t just focus on the price; timing is also crucial.**

From a time cycle perspective, the bear market bottom is most likely to occur in Q4. Regardless of the scenario, Bitcoin will spend some time around the 50,000 range, but the specific timing will differ.

**Let’s discuss the operational strategies based on different situations**:

If the price drops to over 50,000 before Q4, the probability of this being the bottom is actually low. But even if it’s not the ultimate bottom, this price level is likely to rebound over 20%. My approach is to buy less than 50% of my position around 55,000 to participate in this rebound. After it drops below 45,000, I will reassess and consider full position entry.

If it only drops to the 50,000 range in Q4, the likelihood of the bottom being reached will significantly increase. But still, two key signals should be monitored—RP-LTH price level and whether there is a clear panic sell-off:

If both signals appear? It indicates a high probability of the bottom. At this point, I would buy 70% of my position to establish a bottom position, with the remaining 30% being dollar-cost averaged within six months.

If only one signal appears? There is still uncertainty. A more conservative approach is to buy 50% to establish a bottom position, with the rest being dollar-cost averaged within six months.

If neither signal appears? The likelihood that the bottom has not been reached is higher. I would start by buying 30% to test the waters, and then dollar-cost average the rest in batches.

Of course, there is still plenty of time before the bear market bottom. This plan is just an initial idea. As the market evolves, adjustments will definitely be made accordingly.