Recently, market analysis software has been flooding social media with warnings, with messages like "Legal risks will trigger a crash" flying everywhere. Many novice traders are so scared they can't sit still and are asking overnight whether they should liquidate their positions to cut losses.

As an analyst who has been focusing on on-chain data for a long time, I want to honestly discuss a topic: should we really follow this wave of panic?

First, let's state the core point—don't let clickbait headlines lead you astray. This news is indeed sensational, and the 78% probability of market collapse given by the market seems like a heavy blow. According to some estimates, once the related decision takes effect, it could involve a fund movement of up to 600 billion. That sounds terrifying enough.

But the fundamental logic of trading is simple: don’t scare yourself just by looking at numbers; you need to see through the surface to the truth behind it. First, that 600 billion is actually the theoretical upper limit of the "worst-case scenario," just like saying everyone could theoretically win the jackpot. I’ve looked around at discussions in mainstream communities, and most experienced traders believe this number is seriously overestimated. Some even jokingly say that such exaggerated reports are themselves creating opportunities for low-price accumulation. What does this imply? The market is actively digesting this news; panic has not yet formed an overwhelming unilateral trend.

The most critical signals come from on-chain data—that’s the real indicator of the market’s true sentiment. In the past two days, large wallet fund flows have not shown signs of mass exit; instead, several institutional funds of tens of millions are continuously deploying. This is the most authentic voice of the market.