#预测市场 Seeing Coinbase, Kraken, and other leading exchanges accelerating their layout in prediction markets, I have to calmly pour a bucket of cold water.

Yes, VC firms are bearish on new projects in 2025, shifting their focus to stablecoins and prediction markets—sounds reasonable, but behind this hides a pattern I’ve seen too many times: when a track is collectively favored by institutions and mainstream exchanges flood in, it’s often the time retail investors should be cautious.

Polymarket and Kalshi escaping "traffic manipulation" accusations? Don’t be naive. Intercontinental Exchange investing $2 billion in Polymarket, Coinbase acquiring The Clearing Company—these are traditional financial giants bottom-fishing. When liquidity truly becomes active, who will hold the pricing power? Isn’t it those early movers?

Even more ironic, these "veteran players" being named as winners actually highlight a reality: the secret to surviving long on-chain isn’t chasing the hot trends, but following the rules and regulations. Do Kwon’s downfall is still fresh in memory—personal ambitions are insignificant in the face of institutional frameworks.

My advice is straightforward: the prediction market track might indeed have opportunities, but don’t be fooled by the narrative of the "biggest winner." If you really want to participate, ask yourself three questions first—where are the actual users of this project? Where does the liquidity come from? If mainstream exchanges delist it, will your tokens still be worth anything?

If you haven’t thought through these three questions, even the best track is a trap.