2026-01-08 10:20:23

Is the Bitcoin bear market really here? In the first week of 2026, let's take a look at on-chain data to see what it says.

From recent on-chain performance, the reality isn't as bleak as it seems. Although there is selling pressure, it has not reached panic bear market levels. Most investors remain optimistic, and selling pressure is not excessive — this is the key.

The real issue lies elsewhere: the liquidity gap. Purchasing power has noticeably declined, causing $BTC to face less selling pressure but become more prone to hesitation. As a result, volatility becomes inevitable — it's neither a one-sided decline nor a quick rebound, but a repeated testing amid uncertainty.

Simply put, it's more of a waiting period than a collapse phase. Data will continue to send signals, but the true direction can only be confirmed when liquidity re-enters the market.

BTC0,37%

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LayerZeroHero

· 01-09 02:54

It has proven that liquidity is the real variable; sell pressure data can't really explain any issues.

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CryptoSourGrape

· 01-08 17:51

If I had known that this was the "waiting period," I wouldn't have sold my holdings when it was at 20,000 yuan...

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GweiWatcher

· 01-08 10:48

What is missing in liquidity? Now that's the real issue.

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ReverseFOMOguy

· 01-08 10:48

The point about liquidity gaps is spot on, that's exactly how it feels.

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BearMarketMonk

· 01-08 10:34

The point about the liquidity gap is spot on. It's not really a bear market; it's just that no one is willing to take the other side.

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SmartMoneyWallet

· 01-08 10:26

Liquidity gap is pretty well explained here, but you didn't mention the distribution of whale chips, which is the key signal, alright? Isn't this the hallmark of capital game-playing? Retail investors are watching, while the big players are testing the bottom line. It's so套路 (套路 means "套路" in Chinese, but in this context, it refers to "套路" as a concept of tactics or tricks). Waiting for liquidity? I think the key is to watch the movements of large addresses—that's where the real trading strategies are revealed. The statement that purchasing power is declining is too vague. Which on-chain indicators specifically? Exchange outflow speed? Cold wallet growth rate? Where's the data? Rather than waiting, it's better to say this is the golden window for eating up chips; those who understand, understand.

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