U.S. ADP employment data is about to be released tonight, and this report could become a key indicator of the recent market trend. According to CME data, market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January have fallen to around 20%. In other words, there is a general consensus that interest rates will stay high for a longer period.

Looking back at this round of tightening expectations, they have actually been gradually absorbed and digested by the market. Negative impacts are diminishing, and the marginal effects are clearly declining. As long as tonight’s data does not show significant deterioration, it is likely to trigger a rebound after a wave of bearish exhaustion.

There was a similar situation last month. After the data was released, the market often moved in a direction different from expectations. The current atmosphere is that we should not be overly pessimistic; instead, focus on the structural opportunities that may emerge after the data is announced. The market is actually waiting for a turning point signal, and tonight might be that inflection point. BTC and the entire crypto market may be brewing new movements.