Institutions bet $13 million on Bitcoin's Q1 rebound, what signals are being sent by the options market?

According to the latest news, $13 million has flowed into Bitcoin call options with strike prices between $98,000 and $100,000. This capital comes from institutional investors, including the $98,000 call options expiring on January 30 and the $100,000 call options expiring on February 27. Wintermute OTC trading head Jake Ostrovskis pointed out that this signal suggests Bitcoin prices may rise in the first quarter. Currently, BTC is trading above $90,000, leaving some room to reach target levels.

The True Signal from the Options Market

Institutional Funds Repositioning Bullish Positions

This $13 million inflow is not an isolated event. According to data analysis, since early January, institutions have been increasing their bullish positions in the options market. Deribit data shows that the $100,000 strike call options expiring on January 30 have become the most concentrated contracts in market holdings, with a notional value more than twice that of the $80,000 put options of the same expiry.

The implication of this setup is straightforward: large sums are being spent betting on an upward move, far exceeding the amount spent on buying insurance against a decline.

Market Sentiment Moving Out of Panic

This shift is significantly different from the end of 2025. At that time, the market was continuously selling off, with put option premiums soaring, reflecting widespread pessimism. Now, the situation is:

• Put premiums have softened significantly
• The market no longer expects the most pessimistic downside scenario
• Institutions are beginning to establish new long positions
• The situation has slightly stabilized

Jake Ostrovskis emphasized that although individual trades are not large, the consistent direction indicates a high level of consensus among market participants.

The Logic Behind the Data

An important characteristic of the options market is that it reflects real money from institutions and large players betting with conviction. Unlike the spot market, which can be easily influenced by emotions, the capital allocation in options indicates deliberate directional judgment.

Possibility of a Q1 Rebound

Based on signals from the options market, the probability of a relief rally in Q1 is increasing. However, Satraj Bambra, CEO of Rails, pointed out the true bull-bear dividing line: Bitcoin needs to hold above $106,000 on a weekly basis to confirm a trend reversal and then challenge new all-time highs.

In other words, the current bullish positioning still requires price confirmation. The first target is above $90,000 to $100,000, but the real key level is from $100,000 to $106,000.

Summary

The $13 million inflow into the options market reflects institutional investors’ optimistic outlook for Q1. This is not retail sentiment fluctuation but a directional bet made with real funds by large players. Market sentiment has moved out of the panic seen at the end of 2025, but a true reversal requires the price to stabilize above $106,000 on a weekly basis for confirmation. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether the options expiring on January 30 can be profitable, as this will further influence subsequent capital flows and market sentiment.