After U.S. military actions against Venezuela: speculative markets' bets on the next geopolitical target surge in popularity

Following the United States' military intervention in Venezuela, speculative markets are rapidly shifting their focus to the next potential target. This trend began in late December last year when a mysterious trader accurately bet that Maduro would step down before January 31, 2026, earning over $400,000. This case has also sparked increased attention on other potential targets.

Meanwhile, a series of new betting contracts have emerged on prediction market platforms (such as Polymarket), allowing traders to speculate on "the next U.S. military or regime change target."

Currently, there are betting contracts on whether the U.S. will strike countries like Colombia, Cuba, and others;

Moreover, traders are also assessing the stability of other regional leaders. For example, the market now estimates the probability of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei stepping down before June 30 at 37%, significantly higher than the less than 20% before the Venezuela incident.

Even some unconventional geopolitical targets, such as the "capture of Greenland" mentioned by Trump, have a low probability but are seeing rising betting interest.

The rise of such "war contracts" also pushes prediction markets into legal and ethical gray areas. While they can serve as a "barometer of geopolitical risk sentiment" by visually reflecting market expectations through financial bets, their speculative nature also sparks controversy. Critics worry they may amplify conflict rhetoric or even become hotbeds of insider trading.

In summary, this trend clearly reflects that, against the backdrop of the U.S. government's shift toward a tougher foreign policy stance, investors are eager to use various financial tools to assess and trade the rising global geopolitical risks. Prediction markets focused on geopolitical betting thus become a unique and controversial window into real-time international situation analysis.