Tonight at 21:30, a major market event is about to unfold. The US weekly initial jobless claims data will be released, with the previous value at 199,000. The market generally expects it to rise to 210,000. Don't underestimate this number—it directly reflects the true temperature of the US labor market and can instantly reverse trends in commodities and forex markets.

The logic is quite straightforward. If the actual data is better than expected—meaning initial claims are below the 210,000 forecast—it indicates that the resilience of the US employment market remains, and the urgency for rate cuts will decrease. As a result, the dollar will be re-priced by the market, potentially strengthening, which in turn suppresses gold and other risk assets. Short sellers will find opportunities to enter.

Conversely, if the data is weak, with initial claims exceeding expectations, the market will interpret this as cracks in the employment sector, increasing the likelihood of rate cuts, and the dollar will face depreciation pressure. In this context, gold will become the new favorite for safe-haven funds, and bulls may see a rally.

Currently, market attention on employment data has reached its peak. At the moment of the data release, gold prices are unlikely to remain stable—volatile swings in the short term are highly probable. If you are closely monitoring this market, it is crucial to capture the market’s true reaction immediately after the data is released.