The New York Fed High-Yield Bond Market Stress Index has fallen to 0.06, hitting a record low.

This index measures the level of stress in the junk bond market, including liquidity, market functioning, and the ease of corporate borrowing.

Such a low reading indicates that the borrowing environment for high-yield bond issuers is extremely healthy.

In comparison, during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the index was above 0.60, and during the 2008 financial crisis, it approached 0.80.

Therefore, the High-Yield Corporate Bond ETF $HYG has risen for the third consecutive year, with an expected return of +9% in 2025.