#预测市场 Vitalik's words struck a chord with me, highlighting a core pain point I've observed over the years: the market's emotional noise is just too loud.

Take the example of the UK civil war—Elon Musk's single tweet caused panic, but the actual funds on Polymarket only assigned a 3% probability—this gap clearly illustrates the issue. The biggest risk when following others is falling for these emotion-driven false signals. When a big influencer posts a sensational opinion, followers flock in, only for the market to move in the opposite direction.

The beauty of prediction markets lies in their economic incentives—telling the truth can make money, lying will cost you. This logic is the same as traders: true skill is ultimately reflected in account balances, with no free escapes. Those who rely on creating anxiety to attract followers are often taught a harsh lesson when real money is involved.

This gives me a practical reference: when observing a trader's actions, don't just look at how aggressive their statements are, but also whether they are truly placing heavy bets based on their own judgment. Consistent traders are worth following because every position they take is a responsibility to their own views. The true probabilities are right there in the market; lies can't hide forever.