This week's ETH weekly update combined with the key time nodes at the beginning of the month makes the situation quite interesting. The market looks like it's heading north, but honestly, the momentum isn't strong. The monthly chart hasn't shown a lower shadow yet, and with today's weekly update, it's logical to expect a wave north first, then a turn south. The most probable scenario is that the market will complete a liquidity sweep before confirming the direction. Of course, a sideways consolidation cannot be ruled out.

The verification is simple—if the northward needle doesn't break 3350 and the southward needle doesn't break 2750, then we're still trading within the broad range of 2750 to 3350. The key is to observe how aggressive this "天地针" (Heaven and Earth Needle) is. If it comes quickly, precisely, and aggressively, hitting the target and then retracting immediately, it’s just a liquidity sweep needle, and the true trend will eventually continue. The most common violent needles at the range ends often come with enough momentum for a false breakout. We just wait for the opportunity to catch the needle.

**This week's trading logic**: Never enter a position to hold during this phase—this "天地针" can have a very large amplitude. Holding through a breakout can lead to liquidation in minutes. Use the 3050 level to divide the market into two small ranges—2750 to 3050 and 3050 to 3350—and trade within these ranges. Entry points should be as close as possible to these three key levels, and you must see clear top or bottom formations before acting. Both conditions are essential.

**Bullish perspective**: If the needle first points downward, look for opportunities around 3050 to 3080 to try catching the needle. The key is to wait for a quick needle to come down and then start retracting and heading north; only then should you enter. If the price directly breaks below 3050 and stabilizes, the bullish idea should be abandoned. Regardless of where you open your position, 3035 is the critical stop-loss level for bulls, and it must be strictly protected.

**Bearish perspective**: There are several resistance levels above, and they are quite clear. Liquidity is mainly concentrated between 3160 and 3190. Once it reaches around 3220, the recent liquidity will be cleared. Remember the 3239 level? That’s the confluence point of the left shoulder line and the upper boundary of the head and shoulders pattern’s upward channel. If a top formation appears here, it could be a good shorting opportunity. But remember, only enter after the top formation is confirmed—don’t place a pending order prematurely. The 3239 level is just for testing whether the head and shoulders pattern has been completed. If there's a pressureless breakout above it, the pattern is invalid, and we should look at higher levels like 3289, 3345, and 3360. Once 3239 peaks, you can hold a longer position, with targets down to 2850 and 2620.