Global investors are now holding their breath in anticipation of the market open.

This event's impact on the market is actually quite complex, not simply positive or negative. More accurately, it is a classic case of time mismatch—the short-term and long-term effects are completely opposite.

Let's start with the short term. Geopolitical tensions suddenly escalate, triggering an instinctive flight to safety, and funds will initially withdraw. This is a normal reaction.

But what about the medium to long term? Once oil flows into the international market from that region, the oil price center will tend to decline, easing inflation pressures, and risk assets may benefit. The problem is, no one can predict how long the gap will be between these two phases.

Many people focus first on oil prices, but actually, what’s truly alarming isn’t oil itself, but the "method" used. The U.S. directly arresting a sitting president is an action scale last seen during the Panama incident in 1989. This sends a signal worldwide: the boundaries of traditional intervention are becoming blurred. Who’s next? This will directly increase the global risk premium, and the market’s first reaction will definitely be risk aversion.

Here's another detail. The oil fields over there are severely aging, and the infrastructure is basically obsolete. To truly increase production, it would take at least a year or two. So, oil prices won’t immediately plummet.

As for the dollar, it might be temporarily favored in the short term, but in the long run, its "moral authority" and institutional premium are being eroded. It’s increasingly seen as the "least bad option" rather than the "most trustworthy choice."

Overall, this is an event that reacts in phases. When the market opens, gold might rise first, and oil prices will fluctuate initially. After the first wave of sentiment subsides and funds start to do the math, the true direction will be confirmed.