Having been involved in crypto trading for over 5 years, 2025 is the most testing year for my mindset. It's not because of large market fluctuations—those are easier to handle—but because the entire market is shrouded in a sense of ambiguity, as if a storm is imminent but you can't see exactly when it will arrive. This uncertainty directly impacts my judgment on longer cycles, and even shakes my once-strong belief in the "cyclical nature of the crypto market."

This is reflected directly in my trading behavior:

**Trading frequency has plummeted by 65%**, and my overall position size has dropped to a historic low. Honestly, I no longer default to going long the entire market. Although I still made profits this year, the returns have significantly shrunk compared to previous years. I’ve re-evaluated my stance on crypto assets, no longer claiming they are a "risk-adjusted stable return" investment class. Instead, I’ve started to consider traditional stock markets, slowly exploring a different set of rules. But don’t get me wrong—I'm not saying stocks make more money than crypto; I just want to keep more options open and use more flexible ways to capture opportunities.

Let’s look at what 2026 might hold for the crypto space: the market is entering a new phase.

First, **air projects will be identified more quickly**. New coins valued at billions of dollars will be more decisively scrutinized by the market. This sounds like a good thing—markets are becoming more rational. But the cost is that the profit margins for altcoins will be compressed. Because once you price based on valuation multiples instead of dreaming of ten or hundred times returns, the conclusion naturally becomes less optimistic.

**Tokens with real revenue and value-capturing mechanisms will be re-evaluated.** This is the right direction, but it also means the threshold for making quick money is higher.

Speaking of which, I still have some expectations for the January market—many sectors have already been beaten down enough to be quite cheap, so a rebound might not be impossible. As for what Bitcoin will be worth at the end of 2026? Honestly, I don’t know, and I’m too lazy to pretend I do. The next step is to keep observing, wait for market opportunities, and do my best to make good choices.

Wishing everyone smooth sailing in 2026, and I also look forward to this year being a bit more friendly than 2025.