Recently, many people have been smiling from ear to ear after ETH broke through $3,128, even treating it as a bullish signal. I took some time to analyze the latest large holder position data and found that the situation might not be that simple.

The data is a bit eye-opening: currently, the number of bearish whale addresses has reached 747, which is four times the number of bullish whales. But that's not the most critical point. What truly puzzles people is that these bearish whales, even with floating losses exceeding $120 million, show no signs of stop-loss. What kind of accounting are they doing behind the scenes?

A common misconception is to confuse the long-short ratio of ordinary investors with that of whales. But in reality, the difference is significant. Retail investors' position sizes are too small to impact the market much, while each change in a whale's position can directly move the price. Now, with a 4:1 bearish to bullish whale ratio combined with $120 million in floating losses, it might seem like the bulls are winning. But from another perspective—bears might be building an invisible pressure wall through "passive holding."

The game theory here needs to be understood clearly: big players' "stop-loss" isn't forced but a tactical choice. When they anticipate a market reversal, rather than liquidate their positions, they prefer to "hold floating losses," using time to wear down the opponent's patience and momentum. It's like in a confrontation where one side appears to be suppressed but is actually cleverly exhausting the opponent's strength, waiting for a chance to turn the tide.

The long-short battle in the crypto market has never been as simple as it looks on the surface. Numbers tell a story, but how to interpret these numbers depends on experience and calm analysis.