Let's talk about Ethereum's price cycles and technical performance.

Looking at historical data, Ethereum's last bull run started from around 150 in March 2020 and surged all the way to 4800 in October 2021, an increase of nearly 32 times—that was truly crazy. During the subsequent bear market, the price bottomed out at 900. Compared to the starting point of 150, the rebound at the bottom was about 6 times higher.

Looking at the 2018 high, Ethereum reached 1410. Compared to the 2021 peak of 4800, that's a difference of about 3.4 times.

How about this round of market? Starting around 1200 in January 2023, it has now (August 2025) surged to about 4900. The total increase is roughly 4 times. It doesn't seem as fierce as the previous round. More painfully, the new high point (4900) is only about 100 more than the previous high (4800)—although it just barely set a new all-time high, its nature is completely different.

So where will the next low point be? Will it be higher than the previous bottom (900)? These are still unknowns.

Compared to Bitcoin's performance, Ethereum this round has been somewhat weaker. But at least it broke through the all-time high, which is barely acceptable. My view is that, for a coin to be worth paying attention to in the future, it must at least meet this passing line—that is, it should be able to match the new high of Bitcoin.

This round has also been quite turbulent. When Bitcoin hovered around 70,000 for half a year, Ethereum almost got knocked back to its starting point. Fortunately, a oversold rebound later appeared, barely holding the situation.