The recent atmosphere in the crypto market has indeed been subdued. The Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 25, a number that itself tells a story. Many people feel pessimistic when seeing this level, but based on my years of observing market cycles, such extreme fear often signals the emergence of a phase opportunity.

The current market situation is clear: Bitcoin price hovers around $90,000 without a decisive breakout, trading volume has significantly shrunk, and retail investors are caught in two extreme states—either rushing to sell to cut losses or hesitating whether to hold their positions. On-chain data further reflects the true pressure: short-term holders have accumulated losses exceeding $4.5 billion over the past 30 days, a scale of loss only seen at the bottom during the 2024 yen arbitrage storm. Many short-term traders around me have already chosen to completely exit, planning to clear their positions to soothe their minds.

But the problem is, the real signals of the market are often masked by emotions. When retail investors collectively capitulate, it is often the exact moment when professional funds start to position themselves. Besides the sentiment indicators, there is a more easily overlooked on-chain signal worth paying attention to—the total Bitcoin balance on exchanges has fallen below 2.6 million coins, hitting the lowest level since the bull-bear transition in 2018.

The implication behind this data is very clear: genuine investors are moving Bitcoin out of exchanges and storing it during downturns. This is not typical panic selling; rather, it’s quietly laying out the bottom. Historically, during every transition from a bear to a bull market, large-scale accumulation happens in advance. When retail investors finally react, the optimal entry point has long been missed.

Of course, this is not to encourage reckless operations. There are still many uncertainties in the market that require vigilance—such as liquidity changes during the holiday season, subsequent developments in macroeconomic data, and more. But from the historical pattern of extreme fear leading to market reversal, calmness and patience at this moment may be more valuable than rushing into decisions.