2026-01-02 16:24:10

The 2025 prediction market has come to a successful close, delivering an impressive performance. Institutional and retail investors' enthusiasm for event-based predictions has reached an unprecedented high, with mainstream platforms like Kalshi and Opinion Labs setting new records in spot trading volume in December, reaching $18.8 billion in a single month.

According to Artemis data tracking, this growth is not a fleeting phenomenon — the annual trading volume has steadily increased, rising from less than $1 billion in January to a historic high in December. This reflects that prediction markets are gradually evolving into mainstream financial tools, used for hedging risks, tracking elections and economic data, and even monitoring trends in popular culture.

In platform rankings, Kalshi and Opinion Labs each secured $6.7 billion, accounting for about 36% of the total share, forming a duopoly; Polymarket follows closely with $5.3 billion, Limitless contributed $672 million, and Myriad is at the scale of $13.8 million.

More notably, Kalshi, a US-regulated centralized platform, surpassed last year's leader Polymarket in weekly trading volume by the end of the year. As of the week ending December 21, Kalshi's weekly trading volume reached $2.3 billion, nearly double that of its competitor.

This shift indicates that the prediction market ecosystem is accelerating its differentiation and maturation. Research institutions predict that the total annual trading volume of the prediction market could break through $40 billion in 2026, moving towards a trillion-dollar scale within ten years. The transformation from a niche hedging tool to a mainstream financial infrastructure is no longer a fantasy.

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MonkeySeeMonkeyDo

· 01-05 05:44

Kalshi is really taking off, normalization indeed has business potential. Goodbye Polymarket.

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ForkLibertarian

· 01-05 03:27

$18.8 billion in one month? This growth rate is truly outrageous. Kalshi has directly overtaken Polymarket with this move.

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YieldWhisperer

· 01-03 23:10

Kalshi this wave is really fierce, the regulation army has defeated the decentralized veterans, it's quite interesting... --- 188 billion in monthly transaction volume? Who would believe that, unless it's really all institutional players... --- The duopoly monopoly situation has already formed, do small platforms still have a chance? --- Trillion-scale? Wait a minute, let's see if this heat can last until next year... --- It's true that Polymarket was overtaken, the advantages of centralization are indeed obvious --- From 1 billion to 188 billion, this growth curve is a bit too steep, it's either a turning point or a bubble --- The rise of prediction markets has been obvious for a while, the question is can retail investors make money --- Kalshi being regulated by the US actually becomes an advantage, this logic is interesting

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WalletManager

· 01-02 16:51

Hold onto the chips, Kalshi has truly figured this out... Centralization has actually become an advantage, compliance is the hard currency. Institutions with good private key management are all moving in, and the data showing 18.8 billion in monthly transactions doesn't lie.

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CryptoTarotReader

· 01-02 16:49

Kalshi really won big this time, centralized platforms have become mainstream? Kinda ironic. Wow, 18.8 billion in a single month, that growth rate is insane. Polymarket is getting crushed, it was the top player last year. Prediction markets are really about to take off, gotta get on board. Trillions in ten years? I feel like this forecast is still conservative. The duopoly has locked in the market, no chance for newcomers, right? Regulatory platforms are actually getting the most traffic, what does that say? This thing is gradually becoming financial infrastructure, pretty impressive. From 1 billion to 18.8 billion, now that's exponential growth. Why did Polymarket fall behind? Weren't they pretty popular before?

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HalfBuddhaMoney

· 01-02 16:49

Wow, Kalshi directly overtook Polymarket in this wave? The centralized platform has actually been recognized by regulatory agencies, which indeed changed my stereotypical impression of prediction markets. Not all of them need to hide away.

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NFTArtisanHQ

· 01-02 16:49

ngl, watching kalshi sprint past polymarket feels like witnessing the death of the *perceived* democratization narrative we all bought into... the regulatory scaffolding literally outmuscled the decentralized aesthetics. kinda haunting actually.

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LoneValidator

· 01-02 16:42

Kalshi's counterattack on Polymarket has now been confirmed; the power of compliance is truly formidable.

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BasementAlchemist

· 01-02 16:40

Wow, $18.8 billion in a month? This growth rate is really outrageous, it feels like everyone is betting on prediction markets. Kalshi has made a comeback, surprisingly surpassing Polymarket. The power of regulation can be effective. Ten years, trillions... is this exaggerated or is there really such a huge potential? But speaking of Myriad, with that trading volume, are they even still alive? Haha. Prediction markets are really becoming the next big trend, I need to do some research. I used to see how popular Polymarket was, and now they've been overtaken in just a year. Impressive. The dual oligopoly model is a bit boring. When will a dark horse appear?

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SerumSurfer

· 01-02 16:24

Kalshi is really fierce this time, directly surpassing Polymarket. It seems that CEX players still trust centralized platforms.

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