The current token market has expanded to 36.5 million types. Why should that altcoin in your hand go up?

Take a look at this shocking historical comparison: in 2013, there were only 500 tokens in circulation. Back then, it was truly a hot spot, and any project could take off; by 2017, it surged to 3,000, and the market could still share a piece of the pie; but by 2021, the total number of tokens had exploded to 3.1 million; now in 2025, we are facing an ecosystem of 70 million tokens. How outrageous is this growth curve? More exaggerated than the number of mosquito species.

The result is: if your coin doesn’t go up, it’s not bad luck; it’s the normal logic of the market. Even skilled operators need to flip through their contacts to gather enough participants to pump a project. In such an environment, the growth opportunity for individual tokens is fundamentally diluted to an absurd degree.

But this doesn’t mean altcoins have no chance; the key points are:

**This is a math problem, not a luck problem**
About 99% of tokens will ultimately go to zero. This is not a curse on any individual, but a law of probability. When participants in the track grow from a few thousand to tens of millions, the average return naturally tends toward 0.

**Finding the right direction is more important than blindly following trends**
Instead of chasing insignificant small coins, focus your energy on the leading tokens within the ecosystem. These coins, although with relatively limited upside, are much more resilient to risks.

**Position optimization is essential**
Don’t be a token collector; hoarding a bunch of coins you can’t even name is pointless. Instead of spreading your funds across a hundred projects, concentrate heavily on two or three truly competitive players.

One last word: finding a hundredfold coin among tens of millions of tokens is more unlikely than finding true love in a nightclub. What you should do now is to carefully organize your position structure.