#预测市场 Seeing the data that Polymarket's retention rate exceeds 85% is indeed quite interesting. Traditional DeFi platforms rely on subsidies to attract users, and after a wave of hype, they often become deserted, whereas prediction markets can retain users—this underlying logic is worth pondering.

The key feature is event-driven. Elections, competitions, macroeconomic data—all of these are real occurrences. Participants are not betting on the vague and intangible movements of contracts but are making judgments about reality with real money. Telling the truth yields benefits; lying results in losses. This mechanism inherently has a filtering effect—an inversion of the phenomenon where bad money drives out good.

From a copy-trading perspective, this also gives me new ideas. Long-term active traders in prediction markets often have decision-making logic that is more transparent and verifiable. Unlike some contract experts who get rich quickly through luck or leverage, winners in prediction markets are genuinely making decisions based on information gaps and probability assessments. If we can find those traders who consistently profit on Polymarket, their copy-trading value might be more stable than that of short-term contract players.

Major players like Coinbase and Phantom are all laying out plans, and by 2025, the liquidity of prediction markets will only improve. Now is the time to enter, observe market participants, and gather insights so that when the opportunity truly arrives, we won’t be caught off guard.