2026-01-01 21:28:25

Bitcoin Closes 2025 in Negative Territory—Is the Halving Cycle Losing Its Edge?

BTC wrapped up 2025 on a sour note, and it's got people wondering: are we looking at a shift in how the traditional halving cycle plays out?

Here's the thing—for years, the Bitcoin halving has been the choreographed event. Supply shock incoming, euphoria follows, new all-time highs happen. The playbook was almost clockwork. But 2025 is throwing us a curveball.

The red finish to the year raises some real questions. Is institutional adoption finally dampening the retail-driven volatility we used to see? Are macro factors overpowering the deterministic supply squeeze narrative? Or maybe the market's just gotten too efficient to be surprised by a scheduled event anymore.

Whatever it is, one thing's clear—if Bitcoin's closing the year in the red after halving, the old cycle thesis might need a serious rethink. The conditions that used to guarantee explosive runs aren't clicking the same way. Traders and hodlers alike are recalibrating their expectations, and that matters.

BTC0,97%

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

8 Likes

Reward
8
4
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

BlockchainFoodie

· 5h ago

ngl this reads like when you follow a michelin-star recipe to the letter but the soufflé still collapses—supply shock supposed to be *chef's kiss* but market said nah, we're doing something different now

Reply0

SadMoneyMeow

· 5h ago

Well... where's the promised halving market? Now it's awkward.

View OriginalReply0

ProofOfNothing

· 5h ago

Haha, laughing to death. The halving magic has failed? I’ve said all along that the old tricks no longer work. --- Institutional buying has fully understood retail investors' emotions, no wonder there’s no hope. --- To be honest, this round is just digesting expectations, nothing surprising. --- The narrative of the halving cycle is just a hindsight analysis; treating it as a rule is ridiculous. --- A red close is normal operation, don’t always think it must go up. --- The market is too smart and therefore boring; everyone knows it’s coming, so how can we keep predicting? --- In the face of macro pressure, supply shocks are nothing; that’s the real situation. --- I just want to know what the next step is; the current narrative really can’t hold up.

View OriginalReply0

GasFeeVictim

· 5h ago

Huh? Can the halving be played like this... Institutions really have taken away retail investors' happiness

View OriginalReply0