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The latest Federal Reserve December meeting minutes dropped a big bombshell—internal disagreements are far more serious than external expectations. Those officials who publicly support rate cuts are actually holding back; they frankly said they initially wanted to keep things steady, but ultimately agreed to cut rates mainly because they were scared by employment data and worried that jobs might not hold up.
From the economic outlook revealed in the meeting, the Fed is likely to enter a "wait-and-see" phase now. Short-term interest rates are basically set, and the key going forward depends on how inflation data moves. If inflation continues to decline, they may still have room to cut rates; if it rebounds, then it’s game over.
Last night, the US stock market suddenly plunged, and the reason was straightforward—unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped that week. This data instantly dampened the market’s enthusiasm for a rate cut in January, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut dropping from 16.1%. Tech stocks collectively suffered, and the China concept stock index also saw a significant pullback.
Looking at the A-shares market, the opening next week is likely to be dragged down by external influences, and a correction is inevitable. However, from a short-term opportunity perspective, this wave of correction might actually pave the way for a buying opportunity.
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The decline in the unemployment rate has actually become bad news; this market is really mysterious... But what is needed for the phoenix to reborn is exactly this kind of moment.
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This is how a bear market works, hope and disappointment alternate; the key is to maintain a cyclical mindset. I choose to continue full position faith.
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The plunge in US stocks drags down Chinese concept stocks, and A-shares will probably not do well tomorrow. But don’t panic, friends; adjustments are opportunities, and the signal for value reversion has already lit up.
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The meeting minutes look scary, but they actually tell us: be patient, the greatest virtue is at this moment.
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The rate cut expectations have been cooled down, and my account balance has been affected too... But this is the test of mindset; rebirth begins with accepting losses.
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Remember, today’s decline is the foundation for tomorrow’s rise. Emotional recovery takes time, but opportunities are always reserved for those with patience.
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Laughing to death, a good employment situation still gets slapped in the face, this market logic is truly unmatched.
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Waiting and seeing just shows they haven't made up their minds, and how inflation plays out will depend on what happens next.
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Tech stocks are again suffering, I need to think about how to operate next weekend.
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The A-shares will definitely follow suit and adjust, but if the adjustment is in place, there might actually be an opportunity—depends on how brave you are.
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The internal conflict within the Federal Reserve is so serious? No wonder the market is so volatile.
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The rate cut expectation dropped from 16% to GG directly, that contrast is incredible.
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Next week, the market will probably open with a bloodbath, and the adjustment costs are about right for an entry.
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Unemployment rate decline being seen as a negative? This market really only cares about easy money.
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If inflation really rebounds, the rate cut prospects might be over.
With such internal disunity within the Fed, no wonder the market reacted so strongly. As soon as the unemployment rate drops, all expectations are rendered meaningless.
Just adjust and move on; after all, it's just another wave of retail investors being exploited.