Has the four-year cycle of Bitcoin truly ended? Let's start with its performance in 2025.

Question

【Blockchain Rhythm】Bitcoin's performance in 2025 has many people on edge. The closing price at the beginning of the year fell below last year's level, marking the first time in Bitcoin's history that it recorded an annual loss in the year following a halving. The question is—has the famous "four-year cycle" truly come to an end?Let's review the history. After the halving in 2012, 2016, and 2020, Bitcoin all-time highs were reached in the following year. But this time, it's different. The 2024 halving occurred in April, and Bitcoin indeed surged to a new high of $126,000 on October 6, but then it turned around sharply, dropping over 30% from the peak. Its performance for the year went from gains to losses.Vivek Sen, founder of Bitgrow Lab, bluntly states that the four-year cycle has officially died. But the story isn't that simple. Investor Armando Pantoja points out a key change: the entry of ETFs, institutional funds, and corporate balance sheets has completely rewritten Bitcoin's game rules. The market is no longer driven solely by retail sentiment; now macro factors like liquidity, interest rates, regulation, and geopolitical issues are pushing the market behind the scenes.However, Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, offers another possibility—that the four-year cycle itself hasn't died, it has just changed face. It is no longer simply driven by a single "halving mechanism," but is manifesting in new ways.Currently, debates over the long-term cycle structure of Bitcoin continue to intensify, with various viewpoints each holding their own opinions.

GmGmNoGn · Accepted Answer

Four-year cycle death? I don't think so; maybe it's just the pattern changing.

History doesn't simply repeat itself, but it rhymes in new ways.

Still losing after the halving... first time, that's indeed outrageous.

However, institutional entry has changed the game rules; you can't apply old logic to new market conditions anymore.

Death at a 30% drop? That's premature to say; let's see how the second half of this year unfolds.

That $126,000 wave was already a huge surge; a correction is inevitable.

It's not surprising that the cycle theory has collapsed; Bitcoin has long ceased to be a playground for retail investors.

ImpermanentPhilosopher · Answer

Huh, this time really is different. Breaking the historical pattern is a bit scary.

Four-year cycle, I think it's time to retire that explanation.

A 12.6K drop of 30%, how strong must your mentality be to hold on?

Every time they talk about patterns, but the pattern keeps hitting back, it's hilarious.

If Bitcoin could be predicted, I would already be the richest person now.

Anyway, I believe it. The story for the next cycle needs to be rewritten.

Or should we say it's a five-year cycle? No matter how you say it, it can be justified.

This wave has shattered many people's dreams, starting off poorly in 2025.

History repeats, but it's never the same. This time, it's really different.

People always want to find patterns to feel secure, but the market loves surprises.

They talk about cycles, but it turns out the cycle itself has cycles—it's a recursive pattern.

After such a big drop, people are still asking about cycles? I'm truly impressed.

NervousFingers · Answer

Is the four-year cycle dead? I think institutional entry has changed the game rules.

Wait, from 126,000 down to now... I want to know who bought the dip this time.

Another year, and someone is claiming the cycle is dead; next year, someone else will say the cycle is returning.

Honestly, the halving logic might be outdated now; it all depends on macroeconomics and the Federal Reserve's stance.

First time experiencing a loss in history... does it feel like the turning point has arrived? Or is it just the beginning of a continued plunge?

The cycle isn't dead; it just has changed.

pvt_key_collector · Answer

Are four-year cycles dead? Then where did the previous profits come from🤔

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Bitcoin has just given us a lesson; history repeats but never exactly the same

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A 30% drop is indeed outrageous; no wonder so many people are starting to doubt the cycle theory

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Saying death is too absolute; market logic is just changing, gotta think about why this time is different

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Vivek's words are too confident; I think it's still early

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Is 126,000 the ceiling? Feels like the story isn't over yet...

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The halving expectation has long been priced in; no wonder the cycle theory

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This logic is a bit far-fetched; too few data samples to draw conclusions?

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Cold wallets will need to be accumulated for a few more months; waiting for the next story

CryptoMom · Answer

Is the four-year cycle dead? Wake up, that's as ridiculous as saying Bitcoin will disappear. The pattern may change, but the logic remains.

This time was indeed intense, with a somewhat outrageous drop, but those who haven't seen a few bull and bear cycles shouldn't be shouting about permanent beaches. That's really funny.

Is 126,000 the top? I don't think so. Let's wait and see what happens next. I still feel the story isn't over.

Who suffers the most when the cycle theory breaks down? Definitely those who trade crypto with textbooks.

I've experienced several halvings since I was born, and these fluctuations are really nothing. Don't be too timid.

Bitcoin's recent moves are indeed fresh; we've never tried this before. But calling it death is too absolute. Let's wait and see.

ChainDoctor · Answer

Has the four-year cycle died? I think it's the institutional accumulation cycle coming, retail investors are still studying technical analysis.

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The $126,000 high was just a trap; a 30% drop is nothing, mainly depends on who can hold on.

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It's all a repeat of history; the participants behind each cycle are changing. Trying to apply old rules to current market conditions? That's too naive.

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The first loss after the halving indicates that the altcoin season hasn't arrived yet; Bitcoin is still in the bloodsucking phase.

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Vivek Sen said it's dead? Cycles are just a game of probabilities; don't treat rare events as rules.

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It feels more like an hourglass in the crypto world now—funds are pouring down but there's no bottom, it's really disgusting.

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Looking at the gains from April to October, the halving logic hasn't been broken; it's just that macro factors later caused a sell-off.

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Here we go again. Every time the market doesn't meet expectations, people start denying the cycle theory. When prices rise again, they'll be bragging about the cycle.

BanklessAtHeart · Answer

Four-year cycle death? Nonsense, it's just a new way for institutions to scoop up assets.

Ha, here we go again. Every time there's a dip, they say the cycle theory is finished. Why don't they say anything when prices go up?

$126,000 is the top? I laugh. After hitting a new high, there's always another new high.

Speaking of which, aren't those who claim the cycle is dead just trying to buy the dip? Don't let me say too much.

Still losing money after the halving? Wake up, this is just a real shakeout.

Whether the cycle is dead or not doesn't matter; I won't sell anyway.

This recent dip is actually quite clear: big players are clearing out and absorbing shares.

Another market lesson for the theorists—cycle theory is never out of date.

They say the cycle is over every time there's a dip. I really can't keep a straight face with that logic.

Look at what Ethereum is doing; it will tell you that the cycle is still alive.

Has the four-year cycle of Bitcoin truly ended? Let's start with its performance in 2025.

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