Recently, many people have been discussing BTC trends, so I decided to organize my observations.

Comparing historical data is quite interesting— the last bottom formation took 40 days, from top to bottom it took 79 days. This cycle, from a high to now, has already lasted 85 days, and the bottom has been forming for about 40 days, showing some similarities in the time structure.

There are basically two possible directions for the next move. One is to continue selling off, pushing the price down; the other is the bottoming phase, similar to the performance at the previous low.

Personally, I lean towards watching the accumulation phase. The reason is that the market repeatedly shakes out traders, with many sharp rises and falls. There are signs of the bottom gradually rising, but it lacks the formation of a large right shoulder pattern, and it still feels like the momentum isn't fully thorough.

If it is indeed accumulation, the subsequent operation space will be larger. One possibility is an effective breakthrough of the 90,000 mark, and once stabilized, consider chasing longs with a target of 100,000. Another, more complex scenario is to create a final shakeout through news manipulation, quickly breaking support and then rapidly pushing back, followed by accelerating toward 100,000.

The specific path will still depend on market confirmation.