This wave of BTC market movements is a bit perplexing. On November 21st, there was a sign of a bottom at 80,600; by December 11th, it peaked at 94,600. The rise of over ten thousand points looks impressive, but then it started to consolidate sideways. It's been nearly three weeks, and it feels like everyone's patience is running thin.

The more confused you are, the simpler it becomes—it's just a matter of holding on a little longer than others. BTC has now entered the countdown to launch; let me outline how to respond next.

First, clarify one question: Are you trapped or missed out? This is a single-choice question. To achieve a better cost basis, you must risk being trapped; if you're afraid of missing the market, you need to get in early. But that requires mental preparation for being trapped and for stop-loss expansion. As the ancients said, "Perfection is hard to achieve," and indeed, there's no way to do both perfectly.

From the chart perspective, there are two possible routes for BTC—regardless of which one—both are fundamentally bullish. The only difference is whether there will be a retest around 84,000 to 84,700. You can consider your specific situation when choosing.

**Operational ideas for those already holding positions:**

Friends who bought the dip on November 21st can continue to hold. After BTC breaks through 94,600, the key is to watch whether there are clear signs of stopping around 97,000 to 98,000. If so, consider reducing some positions; for the remaining holdings, under the premise of moving stop-loss upward, aim to capture the 101,300 to 103,000 range. If a pullback occurs in the next few days and clear signs of a bottom appear at 86,000 and 84,600, you might consider adding more.

Friends who bought the dip between 84,500 and 85,000 on December 19th should follow the same approach. If the price drops near 84,600 again, it's also worth considering adding to your position.

**For friends holding short positions, the most tangled:**

It's indeed quite difficult. Fear of deep retracement if you chase in, but also fear of missing out on a big move if you don't enter. Here's my outlook for reference.

My judgment is: the current rally from 80,600 hasn't finished yet, and it will likely extend into the week of January 12, 2026. The price should at least stay above 94,600, with 97,000 to 98,000 and 101,300 to 103,000 as reasonable targets. But the prerequisite is—you need to clearly decide where to place your stop-loss.

If you're thinking on a smaller scale, set your stop-loss around 86,300. If triggered, wait for the next opportunity. For a larger scale, only a breakdown below 80,600 would truly invalidate this structure.

**Final advice:**

Profit and loss ratio, certainty, position management, risk control—these factors are intertwined, and everyone's understanding differs, leading to different trading approaches. What I can offer are these conceptual frameworks; the specific actions depend on your actual situation. There are no absolute right or wrongs—only what suits you best.