#战略性加仓BTC Year-end liquidity contraction, beware of the "painting gate"行情再次来临！

Last night, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes were released, confirming previous analysis ideas.

The consensus among Fed officials is clear: it is very difficult to quickly bring inflation back to the 2% target. Especially with the uncertainty surrounding tariffs still present, this means that the period of high prices could last longer than expected.

Interestingly, the data shows a contradiction: Q3 GDP performed well, but the employment market is weakening. The number of people continuing to claim unemployment benefits is increasing, and this "strong macro, cold employment" situation has led to obvious disagreements within the Fed about the timing and magnitude of rate cuts. Some want to cut quickly, others prefer to wait, and these disagreements themselves indicate they haven't fully grasped this cycle.

Regarding the subsequent pace: rate cut expectations remain into 2026, but patience is needed in the short term. The January FOMC meeting is likely to hold steady, with the real key observation window shifting to March. The overall direction is indeed accommodative, but more data is needed to support this judgment.

Turning to Bitcoin, the current situation is actually quite clear.

The $87,000 level has accumulated significant positions, forming an important defense line. More specifically, over 1.7 million Bitcoins have settled within the $84,500 to $87,000 range, indicating that this area has strong absorption capacity. The market has reached a fragile equilibrium here, and just one major news event could break the deadlock.

Looking at a longer cycle, the current sideways movement does resemble previous accumulation phases in history. The market is still contemplating its next move, so this range-bound oscillation is unlikely to dissipate in the short term.

In the environment of extremely low trading volume at the beginning of the year, don’t expect any big moves. Holding above $83,000 and oscillating within the $83,000 to $87,000 range is already a good defense.

$87,000 is the recent support level, with resistance around $90,000. Only a volume breakout above these key levels could trigger a new trend. The market is still waiting for a sufficiently large trigger point.