Pre-holiday market trend forecast: the probability of central oscillation is relatively high.

Today, the market opened low and then moved higher, but individual stock performance was relatively lagging. Insufficient participation of funds under the pre-holiday effect is the main reason. After continuous gains, divergence is also a normal technical requirement, and a pullback or consolidation has become a high-probability event. From a technical perspective, the index is still operating within a strong oscillation zone, with 3936 as a key support level. As long as this level holds, the index still has a chance to challenge the 4000-point mark.

If 3936 is established as the W neckline, the subsequent target for the measurement becomes clearer. A simple calculation shows that the distance from 3936 to 3815 is 121 points, so the upward target would be 3936 plus 121, approximately around 4057. This is a technical estimate assuming no break below 3936. Overall, maintaining oscillation before the holiday is highly likely, and 3936 is a key pivot point for judging the strength of the subsequent trend.

In terms of sector directions, commercial aerospace still performs strongly, with the daily chart in an acceleration phase; today marks the 5th trading day. However, divergence is gradually widening, and stock prices show signs of rising and then falling back (with a top divergence in intraday patterns). In the short term, the sector's rhythm may adjust, and if it continues to rise along the 5-day moving average, it is likely to evolve into central oscillation. The key still depends on individual stock performance, especially those that open high and then decline, particularly stocks with ongoing capital inflows, which are worth paying attention to.

December is the main theme for commercial aerospace, while other sectors mainly rotate and catch up. The short-term performance of digital currencies is also strong, moving with momentum, but the sector effect still appears somewhat insufficient, similar to retail, which is more easily stimulated by news. The true recognition from funds still needs further observation.